The trucking industry is showing signs of stabilizing as the imbalance between freight demand and capacity begins to normalize, according to industry analysts.
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted supply chains globally, prompting consumers to prioritize goods over services. This shift drove a surge in freight demand and higher rates, which attracted an influx of new drivers into the market. However, the subsequent freight market downturn, which began approximately two years ago, led to an oversupply of drivers and equipment amid waning demand.
“Overall, freight demand is gradually improving,” noted Carter Vieth, a research associate at ACT Research. “Concerns about another International Longshoremen’s Association strike in January may have encouraged shippers to move freight ahead of schedule. Additionally, potential post-election tariffs could accelerate this trend further.”
ACT Research’s data underscores these shifts. Its October volume index rose by 7.4 points to 56.9, while the capacity index dropped slightly by 1.1 points to 49.7. This adjustment pushed the supply-demand balance index up to 57.2, signaling a more favorable equilibrium.
“The trucking industry is currently in a state of flux,” said Michael Castagnetto, president of North American Surface Transportation at C.H. Robinson. “We’re seeing a sustained oversupply of capacity, with few catalysts driving significant growth in freight demand.”
C.H. Robinson, ranked No. 2 on the Transport Topics Top 100 list of largest North American logistics companies, attributes the stagnation to several factors. Castagnetto pointed to stagnant industrial output, fewer housing starts, and a pullback in consumer spending as key contributors. Despite these challenges, many carriers remain operational, buoyed by pandemic-era financial savings, debt repayment, and technology adoption to secure freight.
“Route guide depth offers a clear snapshot of the market,” Castagnetto added. “Ordinarily, an increase in this metric over several months would suggest tightening market conditions, allowing carriers to be more selective. However, our data shows route guide depth has remained steady.”
A November survey by Truckstop and Bloomberg Intelligence highlighted growing optimism among owner-operators and small fleets. The survey revealed that 6% more carriers anticipate higher spot rates in the coming three to six months, while 7% expect increased freight volumes. However, 15% of respondents expressed intentions to exit the industry within six months.
“Even with rising optimism, a notable number of carriers plan to leave the market,” said Lee Klaskow, senior freight transportation analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “An accelerated exit of carriers could hasten the market’s return to balance, potentially paving the way for improved rates in the coming year.”
A December report by Commercial Motor Vehicle Consulting indicates the industry has entered a neutral pricing phase. In this environment, for-hire carriers lack leverage to raise rates, and shippers cannot push them lower.
“The market is currently balanced,” said Jacob Faunce, carrier relations manager at E2open. “When Yellow Corp. shut down in July, it instantly removed 34,000 jobs from the market. Combined with broader market adjustments, the total job loss from July to August reached approximately 37,000.”
Faunce pointed to pandemic-era trends, such as an influx of first-time commercial drivers, as factors sustaining current freight demand. Continued growth in retail sales and shipments from Asia and South America have also contributed to the market’s relative stability. Faunce predicts a shift in rates soon, driven by ongoing reductions in fleet sizes and carrier exits.
“Carriers, large and small, have been paring down their fleets in pursuit of elusive demand,” said Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT Freight & Analytics. “Capacity has struggled to align with demand, which has been erratic all year.”
Croke attributed this volatility to high interest rates, shifting consumer behavior, and reduced homebuilding activity. While demand has yet to surge meaningfully, signs of returning seasonality and market predictability offer some optimism. Capacity continues to contract, and freight rates began showing year-over-year improvement in October.
“We’re losing an average of 7,000 carriers every month,” Croke noted. “This trend reflects the massive influx of carriers between 2020 and 2022. Of the 480,000 carriers that entered the market during that time, only about 18% remain active—a remarkable attrition rate.”
